What will change in 2024? Our experts’ global predictions for the year ahead
With elections across the world – from Russia to South Africa, and India to the US – as well as wars in Ukraine, Gaza and elsewhere, what does 2024 have in store for us? Sky News correspondents from across the world share their insights and predictions.
2024 will be a year of jeopardy for our world – it could be the year the tide turns against democracy and freedom as autocrats in the East conspire to threaten both.
How that titanic struggle turns out could determine our future and those of our children for years to come, writes Sky News international affairs editor Dominic Waghorn.
If that sounds like hyperbole, consider the facts.
The West has failed to turn back Russia’s invasion of a European nation. Ukraine‘s Western-armed, Western-trained counteroffensive has not prevailed.
Moscow’s president, Vladimir Putin, has been backed by a club of dictators and gangsters who have one thing in common – an instinct for self-preservation.
The ayatollahs of Tehran have sent drones, and the eccentric despot of Pyongyang has supplied a million shells since August. In contrast, Europe promised Ukraine the same ammunition donation in May, but has so far only sent 300,000.
The autocrats have made a mockery of the sanctions the West boasted would be enough to deter and then repel Mr Putin’s unprovoked invasion.
Brokers in the Gulf have helped Russia sell its oil and China is enjoying a bonanza in cheap fuel imports as well as finding huge profits in a Russian market desperate for its exports.
Members of the self-preservation society of autocrats have found common cause in their dream of overthrowing Western domination. It has not been without its faults but Western hegemony has kept us relatively safe and prosperous since the Second World War.
Its enemies seek to weaken that order and replace it with their own. If they succeed they are more likely to usher in chaos instead.
What’s most worrying, though, is the resurgence in the political fortunes of a man who wants to be like them. Donald Trump‘s first spell as president was characterised more by chaos and incompetence than malevolence. That was its saving grace.
But this time round he and his enablers are working on an agenda. It does not seem to favour either democracy or freedom.
Below, our Sky News correspondents take a closer look at what regions around the world can expect this year against this backdrop.
Three big topics are likely to dominate discussions in Europe in 2024: migration, elections and war.
More than 270,000 migrants arrived in Europe in 2023, with 3,546 listed as dead or missing, UN figures show. 2024 could see a change in direction on how asylum seekers and migrants are dealt with following a last-minute EU deal.
The plan agreed just before Christmas broke years of political deadlock and signalled a move to the right.
It’s set to include the speedier vetting of irregular arrivals and frontline countries such as Italy and Greece will have stricter control over their non-EU borders and more power to deport failed asylum seekers.
The pact has already been called out by more than 50 non-profit organisations which claim it is prioritising “detention camps, fences and deportations to unsafe third countries… at the expense of human rights”.
Meanwhile, European Parliament elections in June increase the pressure around the immigration debate with polls showing a surge in support for far-right parties in countries like Germany and the Netherlands.
There is a fear that hard-right gains could help normalise far-right ideologies across Europe.
The world of sport will also shine a spotlight on Europe this year, too, with the Olympics (and all the controversy over Russian and Belarusian athletes) coming to Paris, and the men’s European Football Championship in Germany.
2024 will also be decisive for Ukraine in the ongoing war against Russia, where Vladimir Putin will stand again for office in a presidential election that will almost certainly see him holding on to power after already being at the helm for 23 years.
Wavering international commitment, deadlock on the battlefield and rising casualties made the countdown to the new year hard going.
In 2024, faced with an emboldened Russia, Ukraine will need to ensure ongoing financial, military and public support at a time when both Europe and the US go to the polls.
The opening months of the year could be pivotal in releasing much-needed EU aid after Hungary blocked 50bn euros (£43bn) which will help prop up the government over the next four years.
Ukraine will also be looking for progress on its bid to join the European Union after the bloc agreed to open membership talks.
Finally, 2024 could see the further expansion of NATO, with Sweden hoping to finally join the alliance after its application has been stalled by Turkey and Hungary.
Taiwan: The flourishing democracy poking a superpower in the eye – Asia correspondent, Helen-Ann Smith
Taiwan goes to the polls tomorrow and it will no doubt further inflame already high tensions with China, which sees the self-governing island as a breakaway province.
President Xi Jinping has repeatedly expressed his desire to “re-unify” it, using force if necessary.
Indeed, China views the fact that elections are being held at all as deeply provocative.
The island has been ruled since 2016 by Tsai Ing-Wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
Her current vice president and would-be successor, Lai Ching-te, is comfortably ahead in the polls.
But a Lai victory in January would be the most provoking outcome for China.
Not only does the DPP take the hardest line against its powerful neighbour, refusing to acknowledge the principle of “one China”, but Mr Lai himself has a history of being more openly in favour of greater Taiwanese autonomy than Ms Tsai.
His opponents in the more China-friendly Kuomintang (KMT) party have warned that a victory for him would lead to war with Beijing.
Around the time of the vote and potential Lai victory, expect a strong reaction from China.
Dozens, possibly hundreds, of jets will fly towards Taiwan‘s airspace, military drills will be carried out in the Taiwan Strait, and we may even see missiles fired, as has been the case during previous high-tension moments.
America: Buckle up for a tumultuous year – US correspondent, Mark Stone
The US election is 10 months away, so predictions are hardly sensible. An upset of some sort is possible, maybe probable – a bombshell court verdict, an illness or something else entirely – but for now at least it looks set to be Biden versus Trump, again.
Through the campaign, as Mr Trump tries to win again, with a powerful base of support and with his unique campaign style, the structures of American democracy and the constitution itself are being put under almighty, perhaps unprecedented, stress.
Beyond the internal stresses, America’s place in the world will be directly impacted as Americans choose their direction.
In real-time, we will watch US geo-political policy decisions being framed by domestic American politics over the next 11 months.
Some issues will become paralysed with no incentive for momentum. On other issues, like perhaps Ukraine, there will be great incentives.
Team Biden will want to find a resolution for the Ukraine war. There is chatter already in Washington of a shift in White House policy – pressure on Ukraine to find a settlement with Russia.
Such is the power of America, whether it be seen as malign or a force for good, that the direction of global events will be driven by issues tangible to American voters; issues much closer to home.
The Israel-Hamas war, now into its fourth month, will dominate the year in the Middle East and risks drawing in more countries.
Israeli forces say they have operational control over the north of the Gaza Strip, but they are engaged in heavy fighting in the south. Hamas has proved more resilient than expected and there is still a vast network of tunnels yet to be uncovered and destroyed.
The US has been urging Israel to lower the tempo of military operations in Gaza, and with thousands of reservists pulling out of Gaza, it looks like Israel has agreed.
However, Israel’s objectives – to eliminate Hamas and rescue the hostages – remain unresolved and so I would expect many months of lower-level combat as the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) hunts down Hamas’s leadership and destroys its capabilities in a more precise way. This will take many months more.
The situation between Israel and Hezbollah is increasingly unstable. Although fighting between the two has been mostly confined to the border areas, the assassination of Saleh al Arouri in Beirut was a risky escalation by Israel.
With no major response by Hezbollah, yet, Israel will calculate the risk paid off, but it raised the stakes and another event like that could lead to war on another Israeli frontier.
Israel says it is determined to push Hezbollah forces in Lebanon back past the Litani River and will do so with military forces if diplomacy doesn’t work, but neither side appears to want a war as both know it would be extremely costly and deadly.
Finally, the Israeli government is starting to address the future of Gaza.
A proposal put forward by its defence minister, Yoav Gallant, would see Israeli forces withdrawing and civilian control of Gaza handed over to Palestinians with support from an international coalition.
But who would govern Gaza, which Arab countries would support the plan, and what happens to the West Bank are among many questions still unanswered.
The spotlight has already fallen on Yemen just days into 2024, where the UK and US have carried out airstrikes on Houthi rebels.
It comes after the Iranian-backed fighters have been attacking merchant ships as they pass through the Red Sea, stating solidarity with Palestinians and claiming they will target ships flagged or associated with Israel.
Pakistan: Rigged election fears could inflame crisis – Asia correspondent, Cordelia Lynch
Pakistan has seen intense political and economic turmoil for more than two years now.
In early February, it’s set to hold elections. But the country’s independent human rights commission says there is little chance they will be free and fair.
The co-chairperson of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, Munizae Jahangir, alleges that “pre-poll rigging” is taking place and expressed deep concern about authorities rejecting the candidacy of former prime minister Imran Khan and most other members of his party.
Mr Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, or PTI, remains the most popular in Pakistan – according to the polls – but Ms Jahangir claims it’s “being dismembered in a systematic manner”.
Imran Khan has not been seen publicly since his incarceration in August in the corruption case that accused him of unlawfully selling state gifts while in office.
Independent monitors accuse a military-backed government of a crackdown on a mainstream political party and increased media censorship.
Murtaza Solangi, the Pakistani information minister, insists his government is committed to assisting the country’s independent election commission in transparently organising the polls.
Mr Khan’s team has certainly been pushing hard to keep him in the running and his name in the headlines – even using AI to clone his voice from behind bars.
But he faces a seemingly insurmountable number of charges, and without the star power of the country’s most popular opposition leader on the streets, or any heir apparent to carry the torch, it’s hard to imagine any kind of political upset.
The appearance of a rigged election or a disputed vote will likely create more months of political instability for a nation that’s enduring massive financial challenges and a significant domestic terror threat.
Side-lining a popular party will alienate an already enraged public. What’s unclear is just how angry and how organised the fightback might be – when the party so many support may well be decimated.
The inbox for any winner is massive. Poor policy decisions, combined with COVID-19, the catastrophic floods of 2022 and tricky economic conditions globally, caused Pakistan’s growth to slow, poverty to increase and brought the country to the brink of debt.
It is now submerged in one of its worst-ever crises. Pakistan is critical to regional stability. The international community can’t afford for it to fail.
India: ‘Strongman’ Modi set to stay in control – Asia correspondent, Cordelia Lynch
India‘s prime minister, Narendra Modi, is also facing an election this year.
And with his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) sweeping three major state elections in December, he’s already declared “this hat-trick has guaranteed the 2024 victory”.
Mr Modi is an impressive campaigner, viewed as a political strongman.
His party’s Hindu nationalist agenda also continues to appeal to the large Hindu majority of the country, especially in the densely populated north.
He’s been accused of a rampant consolidation of political power, of using government agencies to clamp down on political opponents, and of eroding the independence of the judiciary, preventing press freedom and stoking anti-Muslim sentiment.
There are strong elements of opposition to the BJP in the south and east of India, but on a national level, it’s perceived as splintered and weak.
Mr Modi has little to do with state elections – they’re designed to elect local assembly members. But the BJP put his image at the centre last year, with welfare schemes and nationalistic and religiosity key messaging themes.
India has also emerged as a global leader, and its recent moon landing has only elevated its status.
India’s economy is growing, but jobs and inflation could chip away at the BJP’s vote.
There is also concern about the erosion of democracy and the rights of the Muslim minority. It is very, very hard to see Mr Modi losing his firm grip on power.
Africa: Elections in key democracies as conflict in Sudan continues
In Africa, a series of elections in key democracies are expected, while conflict in others continues to raise regional tensions.
South Africa‘s election in March is set to be highly contested. The ruling ANC party, which has governed the country since Nelson Mandela became leader in 1994, faces a range of challenges.
Ex-president Jacob Zuma, who was ousted by current leader Cyril Ramaphosa amid wide-ranging allegations of corruption in government and state-owned companies during his presidential tenure, has denounced his former party.
Mr Zuma, 81, called on other South Africans to vote for a new formation, saying it would be “a betrayal to vote for the ANC” of President Ramaphosa.
There is also an upcoming presidential election in Tunisia, which has been in a state of emergency since 2015 after an attack in which several presidential guards were killed.
It will be the first to be held under the north African country’s new constitution, which allows the president to hire and dismiss key ministers, including the prime minister.
The election is set to be boycotted by many Tunisians, and foreign election monitors are expected to be banned.
In Sudan, a nine-month war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has devastated the country.
Attempts to end the conflict through negotiations, led by the United States and Saudi Arabia, have so far come to nothing and previous agreements to protect civilians have gone unheeded.
Rwanda will be very much in the spotlight again, particularly if Rishi Sunak’s bid to send asylum seekers there goes ahead.
The UK prime minister is battling to deliver on his pledge to “stop the boats”, but the controversial deportation plan has been stalled by legal issues.
International attention will also point to Niger, which has been subject to crippling Western sanctions after its democratically-elected president was ousted in a military coup in July.
Located in the volatile Sahel region, the former French colony has previously been a key player in the fight against armed Islamist groups like Boko Haram.
But French President Emmanuel Macron announced in September that France would remove its 1,500 troops from Niger by the end of 2023, claiming Niger authorities “don’t want to fight against terrorism anymore”.
The withdrawal of Western cooperation has also led to fears of a growing Russian presence in the region, which had previously been gaining influence via the mercenary Wagner Group.
South America: Will Argentina switch to the dollar?
Argentina begins 2024 in a state of upheaval. Newly sworn-in president, ‘the madman’ Javier Milei, has introduced sweeping changes as the country faces turbulent economic times.
His plans to switch Argentina to the dollar have also proved divisive.
In a last-minute U-turn, he also pulled Argentina out of plans to join the BRICS bloc, a group of nations including Russia, India and China that is seen as a counterweight to the West.
Further north, tensions have been rising between Guyana and Venezuela, stoking fears of an outbreak of conflict.
The two countries are in dispute over the oil-rich Essequibo region of Guyana, a former British colony.
The 160,000-square-km (62,000-square-mile) area is generally recognised as part of Guyana, but in recent years Venezuela has revived its claim to the territory and to offshore areas after major oil and gas discoveries.
Guyana and Venezuela agreed in December to avoid any use of force and not to escalate tensions in the long-running dispute.
It comes as Venezuela is headed for elections later this year, along with Mexico.
Meanwhile, Brazil – which swore in new president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva last year – will host the G20 in 2024.
“I hope we can address the issues that we need to stop running away from and try to resolve,” the president told ministers as he looked ahead to the gathering.
SOURCE: SKYNEWS
