Taiwan’s election result will influence security dynamics and pose tricky trade decisions for Canberra

Taiwan’s election result will influence security dynamics and pose tricky trade decisions for Canberra
  • PublishedJanuary 13, 2024

What is Taiwan’s capital city? This question appears simple, but often stumps Australians.

Most would say Taipei. And it is the de facto capital.

But arguably the capital of Taiwan — also still known as the  Republic of China — is Nanking, a city in mainland China. More on that later.

This ambiguity speaks to the complexity of Taiwan’s history and fraught political landscape.

A map shows China and Taiwan with their respective flags on their territory
A map shows China and Taiwan with their national flags overlaid.(ABC News: GFX/Jarrod Fankhauser)

On Saturday, the Taiwanese people will vote to choose their next president.

It’s an important election and its outcome will have impacts beyond the island’s immediate political future.

While voting is not compulsory, many will cross the country — or come home from abroad — to cast their ballots in their home cities.

The outcome will likely influence Chinese President Xi Jinping’s timeline for reunification with mainland China — and the potential for conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

And no matter which party wins, Canberra will have tricky trade decisions and security dynamics to navigate.

A psychological battle

A man surrounded by a crowd smiles and waves.
Lai Ching-te is the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) presidential candidate.(Reuters: Ann Wang)

While there are three parties contesting the election, the central rivalry is between two major camps.

The Kuomintang (KMT) lean towards Beijing, and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) are aligned with Washington.

These parties navigate a voter base deeply split over China-Taiwan cross-strait relations.

Xi considers claiming Taiwan, either through war or a peaceful unification process, a core element of his “Chinese dream”.

A man in a car smiles and waves at crowds.
Hou Yu-ih, a candidate for Taiwan’s presidency from the main opposition party Kuomintang (KMT), at a campaign event in January.(Reuters: Ann Wang)

A KMT-led Taiwan might slow down a decision on military action because Xi is less likely move against a pro-Beijing party, while DPP leadership could prompt Xi to take a more aggressive approach sooner.

The threat of military action itself has already sparked a psychological battle, that is heavily swaying how Taiwanese people vote.

Opting for the pro-Western DPP would likely provoke more military intimidation by China, creating a feedback loop that would drive more support towards the DPP’s presidential candidate Lai Ching-te, a staunch advocate of “de-Chinaisation”.

On the other hand, choosing the KMT could risk Taipei being perceived as Beijing’s puppet.

KMT leader Hou Yu-ih’s support for the One-China Policy could also further fuel the divide inside Taiwan over China.

Whichever leader is elected president, Xi will then decide how to interact with Taiwan.

His decision will have flow on effects for global security and the Asia-Pacific region, including Australia.

While it’s too early to know what these impacts will be, they will soon become clear.

East rises, West falls

Soldiers of China's People's Liberation Army Navy form a line as they patrol on an island in the South China Sea.
China has been steadily increasing its presence in the South China Sea in recent years with massive building and military projects.(Reuters)

The election comes at a pivotal moment geopolitically as Taiwan, along with the broader South China Sea region, is increasingly becoming a zone of strategic tension between Beijing and Washington.

Whether this tension escalates into war depends on the difference in military strength between the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the combined forces of the United States and its regional allies, including Australia.

Currently, with the Russian-Ukrainian and Israeli-Gaza wars ongoing, international relations are shifting. 

Xi’s alliances are clearly leaning towards the Palestinian Territories and Russia. 

China, often criticised for its treatment of Uyghur Muslims, aims to win over Muslim nations by “supporting the just cause of the Palestinian people in defending their national rights”, China’s foreign ministry has said.

China’s efforts to rally these nations behind its vision for a new international order are intensifying the competition with its main strategic rival, the United States.

“With a so-called coalition of authoritarianism led by China, including Russia, North Korea, Iran, Pakistan, and so on, Xi Jinping has managed to create an anti-Western bloc,” said Willy Wo-Lap Lam, senior fellow at The Jamestown Foundation.

“International perceptions of China are not a priority for Xi,” said Professor Lam.

“What he cares is that the East rises and the West falls – his group will outgrow the Western coalition led by the United States.”

As China’s power and influence grows toward parity with the US, and the threat of war becomes greater, so the Taiwanese people’s votes become more unpredictable.

Canberra’s trade challenge

a graphic of Chinese and Taiwanese flags
China is closely watching the Taiwanese election. (Reuters: Dado Ruvic)

Security dynamics aside, after Taiwan’s election Canberra will have a key decision to make.

Both China and Taiwan are bidding to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free-trade pact.

Australia has a difficult choice to make because allowing Taiwan into the partnership might create tension with China.

China has urged Australia to avoid ideological battles.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s stance on China is to cooperate where possible and accept differences where necessary.

Given China’s economic might, Canberra is unlikely to risk damaging its diplomatic ties with Beijing.

If the KMT wins and cross-strait relations remain stable, Canberra may not need to side with either China or Taiwan.

And if tensions escalate or relations between the two become too cordial, altering Australia’s policy towards Taiwan would also be challenging.

Australia is more likely to maintain the existing diplomatic status quo — formal diplomatic relations with China, and acknowledging the One-China Policy.

Australia does not officially recognise Taiwan as a state, but maintains unofficial economic and cultural ties with Taipei.

Back to the question of Taiwan’s capital city, which symbolises the complex political dynamics in Taiwan. 

Nanking was historically the capital of the Republic of China (ROC), which once governed all of China but now only Taiwan — and which China doesn’t recognise at all.

Declaring Taipei as the island’s capital city would be akin to declaring independence, a move fraught with geopolitical and even military implications. 

Neither Taipei nor Nanking is even specified in the ROC constitution, under which Taiwan’s democracy officially operates.

It has sparked a debate in Taiwan for years.

It’s this historical complexity which means the tensions surrounding this election can be difficult to understand.

SOURCE: ABCNEWS

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